Publication Highlight: Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggest previously unidentified emissions

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Chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs) emissions are greenhouse gases that contribute to harmful ozone depletion. In a recently published Nature Communications article, Joint inference of CFC lifetimes and banks suggest previously unidentified emissions, Prof. Fletcher and co-authors Megan Lickley, Matt Rigby, and Susan Solomon investigate the lifetimes and emissions of CFC-11, 12, and 113 through a joint inference Bayesian framework. Their analysis finds that the lifetimes of CFC-11, 12, and 113 are likely shorter than currently recommended values. This suggests that estimates of CFC emissions are likely larger than recent evaluations. Their analysis estimates new, unexpected emissions of CFCs during the period between 2014 and 2016, motivating further investigation of potential sources of emissions of CFC-12 and 113 in addition to CFC-11. These findings suggest that current CFC emissions may be in violation of the Montreal Protocol which aimed to phase-out the industrial production of CFCs and other ozone-damaging substances by 2010.