Future directions
We aim to both advance projections of sociotechnical systems under global environmental change and also to develop plans that are robust to the inevitably uncertain future. We will investigate the potential for adaptive operational management and demand-side policy to reduce the need for expensive infrastructure investments.
Using remotely sensed earth observations to model natural and human systems.
Earth observation data provides a valuable and growing source of information to model natural and human systems. Building on our work in using data to reduce epistemic uncertainty, we plan to use remote sensing to reduce hydrological uncertainty and improve planning outcomes. We are using satellite imagery to assess the climate vulnerability of food systems in West Africa. By using data assimilation methods to incorporate surface reflectance data into a crop simulation model, we are able to characterize the uncertainty in yield estimates in this data-scarce region.
Building theory on uncertainty, robustness, and resilience in climate change adaptation.
Much recent work in water resource systems analysis (including our own!) has focused on developing new methods for evaluating planning and management strategies. These methods are typically demonstrated and applied in a small number of case studies, which develop important and detailed insights for planners. However, a small-N approach limits the generalizability of identified planning strategies.